America celebrated Independence Day with a bang in the stock market this week, as we witnessed record numbers yet again. This impressive performance coincided with a rally in the back end of the yield ...

Learn to create a yield curve in Excel and understand its implications for interest rate forecasting. Follow our simple guide ...

Treasury yield curve outlook: 3‑month T‑bill most likely 1–2% in 10 years; 2y/10y spread turns positive. See inversion odds ...

The “experts” talk about how the U.S. Treasury Curve is currently “inverted.” What does that mean, and should it matter to lenders? The fact is, the yield curve (a graphical representation of yields, ...

For much of the last two years, the 2-year US Treasury yield has traded above the 10-year yield. When that happens, it historically has meant a recession is looming. So you’d think that investors and ...

The yield curve has long been a closely watched indicator of economic health. When the yield curve inverts, meaning short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates, it is often seen as a harbinger of ...

In a blog post published on January 16, economists Benjamin Böninghausen and Andreea Liliana Vladu look to disaggregate the ...

There’s strong and growing evidence that the “next” US recession has begun - or will begin soon. Historically, the longer and deeper has been the initial inversion, the longer and deeper has been the ...

Much has been made about an impending recession. The reasons, however, are seldom discussed, are even less understood, and do little to inform what actions investors should take (if any). Economists ...

An inverted yield curve indicates short-term rates exceed long-term, suggesting economic caution. Historically, consistent negative spreads on this curve have preceded recessions. Investors might ...

The yield curve disinverted this week, suggesting an economic recession may be near. Historically, yield curve disinversions have preceded every economic recession since 1976. Investors are reacting ...